【All Signs Public】USDJPY M15｜3-Day Verification Arrow Commander

【Verification Report】2025/11/17～11/19｜USDJPY・15-minute Sign Verification

This time, we will explain the recent sign accuracy using Arrow Commander + ZoneBreaker Core.
The target period isNovember 17–19, 2025 (3 days),
The target currency isUSDJPY・15-minute chart.

▲ Actual chart screen (15-minute chart – signs)

Number of signals and results

During this period, the Arrow Commander 15-minute signals appeared a total of17 times. Excluding the most recent signal as it has not been settled yet, the results are as follows.

• Signals appeared: 17
• Settled signals: 16
• Results: Auto SL A mode 11 wins 5 losses (win rate 69%)
• Results: Auto SL B mode 13 wins 3 losses (win rate 81%)
• Results: Auto SL C mode 14 wins 2 losses (win rate 87%)

■ Judging by win rate alone is risky!
Why A mode can be profitable even with a low win rate

A common misconception among beginners is
“Higher win rate = better,” “Lower win rate = worse.”
.

However, in actual trading,
the profit is determined most importantly by the combination of win rate and reward-to-risk ratio.

Relationship between win rate and reward-to-risk (diagram)

▲ Win rate and reward-to-risk are the two major factors that determine trading results

Why a higher win rate does not guarantee profits

Mode A has the lowest win rate at 69% among the three modes. However,a lower win rate does not necessarily mean worse results.

Profit in trading is determined by the combination ofwin rate × reward-to-risk, so even with a low win rate,a mode that has a large profit per trade can still result in A mode outperforming B/C modes.

■ C mode has a high win rate (14 wins 2 losses), but the profit per trade is relatively small.
■ A mode, even with a lower win rate, has a high profit per trade (RR), so
“Total profit may favor A.”

If you choose modes based only on win rate, you may end up in a situation like “winning but not growing” or “high win rate but small profits.”

Therefore,understanding win rate and reward-to-risk together is a必須 point for improving trading.

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