[Pathway to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Recognition and Memo_20251116]
November 16 is Sunday.
Hello.
In the morning it will be sunny
and in the south Kanto area it will be cloudy from the afternoon.
I plan to get outdoor work done while it's still light.
I think so.
Last week, with the weakness of the dollar and the yen,
the cross-yen buys and long entries seemed to be good.
It seems so.
If you were buying/long entry,
a downside swing would also have been possible.
Personally, I am short, so
for AUD/JPY on Friday
it became a selling/short entry only
trade.
Well then, let's review.
These are the numbers at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 11th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 16th / 8
Weekly volatility: 114 pips
Daily: HPC2 8th / 7
4HC 1st cycle, 44th / 37
It is perceived as such.
When checking long-term,
the monthly EMA200 has been exceeded, so
I think it may go up, and
the 4-hour chart has also broken above EMA200,
so I still think it may go up.
Weekly volatility is small,
so we should also consider the possibility of a top.
****************************
20251116_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoExplanation
https://youtu.be/onTanXB3MzY
*****************************
【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 15th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 9th / 9
Weekly volatility: 161 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 43rd / 41 or
Daily: 2nd cycle, 6th / 4
4HC: 4th or 1st, 36th / 23
That is how I view it.
Same as EUR/USD,
this chart can be suspected of a Half Primary Cycle (HPC).
Going forward, a decline is not improbable in the daily cycle.
This is the daily cycle.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 11th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 16th / 8
Weekly volatility: 131 pips
Daily: HPC2 8th / 7
4HC 1st cycle, 48th / 41
That is how I view it.
Dollar indexes are seen as having a ceiling for the upside.
The scenario of a stronger dollar and stronger yen seems
difficult, but
technically possible.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 16th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 16th / 16
Weekly volatility: 264 pips
Daily: HPC2 32nd / 32
4HC 3rd cycle, 48th / 45
That is how I view it.
Daily and 4HC are in the latter half.
It is a chart where a decline is not surprising.
What could cause the bearish candle?
EUR/USD stagnation?
If USD/JPY’s bearish candle grows larger,
the probability seems high.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 16th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 15th / 10
Weekly volatility: 228 pips
Daily: HPC2 32nd / 5
4HC 3rd cycle, 48th / 41
That is how I view it.
Daily and 4HC are in the latter half.
Since GBP/USD is declining sharply on the daily chart,
GBP/JPY is also affected.
If USD/JPY declines here,
it will be synergistic
and GBP/JPY could descend toward a crash-like state.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 8th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 13th / 13
Weekly volatility: 214 pips
Daily: HPC2 21st / 20
4HC 2nd cycle, 48th / 39
That is how I view it.
Weekly volatility finally increased.
As expected, 200 would be desirable.
In the latter half of 4HC
if the daily chart breaks the starting point at 2,
the weekly chart would also be expected to break the starting point.
****************************
20251116_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoExplanation
https://youtu.be/onTanXB3MzY
*****************************
*****************************
US10Y 4.148 +0.8%
DJI 47147 dollars -309
US500 +0.07%
WTI 59.595 dollars
Nikkei 225 50376 yen -905
****************************
Let us learn together.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/70675
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872
【Iroha Organization (168) _2】
Registration URL:
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/rooms/33239
No-bi To Re
Hello.
In the morning it will be sunny
and in the south Kanto area it will be cloudy from the afternoon.
I plan to get outdoor work done while it's still light.
I think so.
Last week, with the weakness of the dollar and the yen,
the cross-yen buys and long entries seemed to be good.
It seems so.
If you were buying/long entry,
a downside swing would also have been possible.
Personally, I am short, so
for AUD/JPY on Friday
it became a selling/short entry only
trade.
Well then, let's review.
These are the numbers at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 11th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 16th / 8
Weekly volatility: 114 pips
Daily: HPC2 8th / 7
4HC 1st cycle, 44th / 37
It is perceived as such.
When checking long-term,
the monthly EMA200 has been exceeded, so
I think it may go up, and
the 4-hour chart has also broken above EMA200,
so I still think it may go up.
Weekly volatility is small,
so we should also consider the possibility of a top.
****************************
20251116_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoExplanation
https://youtu.be/onTanXB3MzY
*****************************
【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 15th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 9th / 9
Weekly volatility: 161 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 43rd / 41 or
Daily: 2nd cycle, 6th / 4
4HC: 4th or 1st, 36th / 23
That is how I view it.
Same as EUR/USD,
this chart can be suspected of a Half Primary Cycle (HPC).
Going forward, a decline is not improbable in the daily cycle.
This is the daily cycle.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 11th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 16th / 8
Weekly volatility: 131 pips
Daily: HPC2 8th / 7
4HC 1st cycle, 48th / 41
That is how I view it.
Dollar indexes are seen as having a ceiling for the upside.
The scenario of a stronger dollar and stronger yen seems
difficult, but
technically possible.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 16th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 16th / 16
Weekly volatility: 264 pips
Daily: HPC2 32nd / 32
4HC 3rd cycle, 48th / 45
That is how I view it.
Daily and 4HC are in the latter half.
It is a chart where a decline is not surprising.
What could cause the bearish candle?
EUR/USD stagnation?
If USD/JPY’s bearish candle grows larger,
the probability seems high.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 16th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 15th / 10
Weekly volatility: 228 pips
Daily: HPC2 32nd / 5
4HC 3rd cycle, 48th / 41
That is how I view it.
Daily and 4HC are in the latter half.
Since GBP/USD is declining sharply on the daily chart,
GBP/JPY is also affected.
If USD/JPY declines here,
it will be synergistic
and GBP/JPY could descend toward a crash-like state.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 8th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 13th / 13
Weekly volatility: 214 pips
Daily: HPC2 21st / 20
4HC 2nd cycle, 48th / 39
That is how I view it.
Weekly volatility finally increased.
As expected, 200 would be desirable.
In the latter half of 4HC
if the daily chart breaks the starting point at 2,
the weekly chart would also be expected to break the starting point.
****************************
20251116_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoExplanation
https://youtu.be/onTanXB3MzY
*****************************
*****************************
US10Y 4.148 +0.8%
DJI 47147 dollars -309
US500 +0.07%
WTI 59.595 dollars
Nikkei 225 50376 yen -905
****************************
Let us learn together.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/70675
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872
【Iroha Organization (168) _2】
Registration URL:
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/rooms/33239
No-bi To Re
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