【Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Scene Environment Recognition & Memo_20251109】
November 9th, Sunday.
Hello.
It will be a cold, rainy Sunday.
Today's plan is
to clean the floor and lay down carpet.
Now, about the market,
it feels like there are signs of the yen strengthening.
Tomorrow the 10th is a GOTO day,
so I look forward to the charts after the Tokyo market closes.
Now, let's confirm.
The figures are at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 11th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 15th / 8
Weekly volatility: 122 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 3rd / 3
4HC 1st cycle, 14th / 13 or
Daily: 2nd cycle, 22nd / 7 LT
4HC 3rd cycle, 14th / 13
I interpret it as such.
I prepared two starting points for the daily chart.
Personally,
is it a Half Primary Cycle (HPC)?
I think so, however,
clear determination will be made
in the future,
so for now there are multiple scenarios.
I am concerned about the movement of GBP/USD.
****************************
20251109_FX_MarketEnv_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/E9-3l37dqVE
*****************************
【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 15th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 8th / 8
Weekly volatility: 166 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 38th / 35
4HC 4th cycle, 18th / 5 LT
I understand it as such.
4HC has broken the starting point.
Until the daily close, the downside bias will continue.
And, HPC (Half Primary Cycle) is suspected to unfold.
December’s anomaly suggests yen strength,
perhaps moving toward that.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 11th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 15th / 8
Weekly volatility: 272 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 3rd / 3
4HC 1st cycle, 18th / 18
I understand it as such.
HPC 2nd has transitioned,
but since the first already broke the starting point,
watch out for a crash.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 16th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 15th / 14
Weekly volatility: 227 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 27th / 21
4HC 3rd cycle, 18th / 17
I interpret it as such.
Even if EUR/USD rises,
if the situation is right,
we would like to expect a decline in USD/JPY.
In the 4-hour chart, a head-and-shoulders pattern can be confirmed.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 16th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 14th / 10
Weekly volatility: 373 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 27th / 5
4HC 3rd cycle, 18th / 18
I understand it as such.
GBP/USD is rising,
but there is a possibility of topping out,
and we may see a top form within this week.
If USD/JPY drops sharply,
it could temporarily form a bearish candle,
and in the next phase, a crash of GBP/USD
could bring another surge of bearish candles
within this week.
That is what I am expecting.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 8th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 12th / 11
Weekly volatility: 231 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 16th / 10
4HC 2nd cycle, 18th / 5
I understand it as such.
If U.S. stocks fall, risk-off occurs,
AUD/USD declines,
Nikkei falls,
USD/JPY declines,
a major crash is possible.
As a commodity currency,
AUD,
we must consider the relationship between China and the U.S.
as well.
****************************
20251109_FX_MarketEnv_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/E9-3l37dqVE
*****************************
*****************************
US10Y 4.093 +0.15%
DJI 46,987 dollars +74
US500 +0.05%
WTI 59.495 dollars
Nikkei 225 50,276 yen -607
****************************
Let us learn together.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/70675
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872
【Iroha-gumi (168) 2】
Registration URL:
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/rooms/33239
No-bitorei