America Stocks S&P 500 Fixed-Point Observation 5th Week of October 2025

Source: finbiz



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This week's S&P500

This week's S&P500 (SPX) rose on strong earnings from tech companies and AI-related strength, continuing through the weekend.

• SPX rose for three consecutive weeks and hit new highs this week as well. Large-cap and high-tech leadership stood out.

• Nasdaq outperformed with +2.3% thanks to strong results from large AI-related companies.

• S&P500 itself gained more than 2% in October for the sixth consecutive month; corporate earnings were solid (Q3 EPS growth expected +10.7%).

• The U.S. Fed cut rates by 0.25%, but outlook for further cuts remained uncertain.

• Meanwhile, seven out of eleven SP500 sectors fell weekly, with only some large-cap names rising.

• Some components of the Magnificent Seven (Microsoft, Apple, Meta) fell after earnings, while Amazon and Alphabet held up well.

• NVIDIA surpassed a market cap of $5 trillion midweek.

• Some consumer staples and utilities moved strongly as well.

• AI- and tech-led gains in large caps drove the overall market higher, while mid- to small-caps remained weaker.

• Earnings were broadly solid, improving overall earnings outlook.

This week’s SPX remained solidly higher, supported by strong earnings and AI-led large-cap rally, looking to test new highs.

Economic indicators & events next week

November 3 (Monday)

• ISM Manufacturing PMI: A key indicator of U.S. manufacturing health. Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. This forecast is 49.2, indicating contraction. Individual components such as production, new orders, employment, inventories, and prices will also be released, and reactions in forex or stocks are possible depending on the results.

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Private PMI used for global comparison. Focus on changes from prior readings.

• Construction spending & auto sales: supplementary indicators of consumption and capex.

November 4 (Tuesday)

• JOLTS Job Openings: Reflects demand-supply in labor market; also shows hiring difficulties and turnover trends. Prior: 7.227 million.

• Trade balance, factory orders: Indicate international trade and manufacturing activity.

November 5 (Wednesday)

• ADP Employment Report: Change in private payrolls; a leading indicator for employment statistics.

• ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services PMI): Health of the service sector, which accounts for about 70% of the economy. Market forecast around 50.7, expansion barely above 50. Above 50 is expansion, below is contraction.

• MBA Mortgage Applications, EIA Crude Oil, Treasury Long-Term Debt Auctions: Housing, energy, and financial indicators to watch.

November 6 (Thursday)

• Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly labor market signal; sensitive to economic changes.

• Wholesale inventories, Nonfarm productivity & unit labor costs: Macro indicators of business activity and cost pressures.

November 7 (Friday)

• U.S. Employment Situation (Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings): The most important. This month: payrolls expected to rise by 140k, unemployment rate at 4.1%, and wage growth in focus.

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary): Consumer confidence and inflation expectations are market drivers.