【Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness and Memo_20251005】
October 5th, Sunday.
Hello
It is a bright, cloudy Sunday.
It’s a good day for outings, isn’t it?
I will, firmly, work through the “To-Do List”
and go out.
I think so.
Now, with the new president being Takai,
I am very curious how the future chart will move.
I’m very interested.
As a measure against rising prices,
I think a stronger yen would be safe and prudent.
Isn’t that something I’m not alone in thinking?
Because Japan is importer-inflation driven.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/mypage/display/navi/article/101164
Now, let’s confirm.
The figures are based on the closing timing of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly chart: 10th bar
Weekly chart: 2nd cycle, 10th bar / 8
Weekly volatility: 95 pips
Daily chart: 1st cycle, 46th bar / 34 or
Daily chart: 2nd cycle, 7th bar / 5
4H C: 5th or 4th, 37th bar / 21
I perceive it as such.
EUR/USD has small weekly volatility
and looks hard to trade.
Due to the US government shutdown
I thought there might be movement, but
there hasn’t been big movement
and I think this state may continue until the shutdown ends.
I’m just observing.
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20251005_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/hj-E7KgxYjM
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly chart: 34th bar
Weekly chart: 5th cycle, 24th bar / 15
Weekly volatility: 292 pips
Daily chart: 4th cycle, 13th bar / 8
4H C: 2nd cycle, 15th bar / 11
I’m interpreting it this way.
I had also considered the possibility of the monthly chart closing,
but I’d like to stick to the original theory.
If you consider the weekly chart in the 5th cycle,
a break of the starting point seems in view,and it may aim for 139.57.
When Takai becomes prime minister,
I thought the yen would weaken,
but
if we are to counter inflation,
for Japan's import-inflation,a stronger yen would be desirable.
Perhaps a rate hike.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly chart: 10th bar
Weekly chart: 2nd cycle, 10th bar / 8
Weekly volatility: 133 pips
Daily chart: 1st cycle, 46th bar / 34 or
Daily chart: 2nd cycle, 7th bar / 5
4H C: 4th or 1st, 37th bar / 23
I perceive it this way.
The dollar pair has relatively low volatility
and seems unsuitable for trading.
Since the daily chart is turning,
is the next move up?
Or is it down in a Half Primary Cycle (HPC)?
I’d like to confirm after Monday.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly chart: 34th bar
Weekly chart: 5th cycle, 32nd bar / 31
Weekly volatility: 274 pips
Daily chart: 5th cycle, 2nd bar / 2
4H C: 1st cycle, 8th bar / 7
I perceive it this way.
Due to USD/JPY influence
weekly volatility has increased.
Since 4H C has turned
the upside bias is stronger.
If we consider the daily chart as the 5th,
a break of the starting point from 4H C1 is possible.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly chart: 38th bar
Weekly chart: 5th cycle, 26th bar / 24
Weekly volatility: 293 pips
Daily chart: 4th cycle, 2nd bar / 2
4H C: 1st cycle, 8th bar / 8
I perceive it this way.
With the daily chart turning, upside risk has increased,
but in the weekly 5th and daily 4th,
it seems there could be a candlestick to the downside at any time.
I think.
It will depend on USD/JPY.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly chart: 32nd bar
Weekly chart: 4th cycle, 26th bar / 23
Weekly volatility: 129 pips
Daily chart: 3rd cycle, 33rd bar / 18 or
Daily chart: 4th cycle, 2nd bar
4H C: 4th cycle, 9th bar / 8
I perceive it this way.
Weekly volatility is small
and trading is difficult for this pair.
USD/JPY and AUD/USD seem to be offsetting each other.
Future moves are expected to be influenced by
the movement of USD/JPY.
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20251005_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/hj-E7KgxYjM
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US10Y 4.121 +0.88%
DJI 46758, +238
US500 -0.02%
WTI 60.285
Nikkei 225 45769, +832
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