General Address Speech and Super Thursday, Fed officials' remarks, a week moved by remarks!? ~ Highlights and event schedule for the week of February 4 ~
◎ This Week's Highlights
1) The State of the Union Address
Ideally, the State of the Union address should have been announced last month, but it was postponed due to the government shutdown (conflict with the Speaker of the House). Of course, I am curious about the contents of the address.
However, the impacts of the government shutdown, the border wall funding with Mexico, and the budget proposals become important. Last month, the agreed budget is a provisional one. By next week, the deadline will pass, leading to another government shutdown. I am watching how the budget proposal and the shutdown issue will be resolved.
2）Fed signals and USD direction
Last week, the dove-like content at the FOMC led to dollar selling, followed by dollar buying after the employment data, creating uncertainty. Personally, I think dollar weakness will come from the end of rate hikes and a reconsideration (temporary pause) of balance sheet reduction, but I want to verify again with statements from U.S. officials to confirm the dollar's direction.
3) Super Thursday
This week is “Super Thursday,” when the UK’s policy rate announcement and inflation report are released simultaneously. I expect the policy rate to hold, but the inflation report (inflation outlook) in the run-up to Brexit is very noteworthy. Depending on the contents, the pound could move significantly. Caution is advised.
◎ This Week's Economic Calendar
February 4 (Monday)
06:45 NZD Building Permits
09:30 AUD Building Permits
16:00 TRY Turkey CPI
18:30 GBP Construction PMI
19:00 EUR Italy HICP
23:00 EUR Costa/Portugal Central Bank President remarks
February 5 (Tuesday)
President Trump delivers State of the Union address
09:30 USD Mester (Cleveland Fed) President remarks
09:30 AUD Retail sales・Trade balance
12:30 AUD Policy rate decision・statement
16:30 SEK Sweden services PMI
17:45 EUR Italy services PMI
17:50 EUR France composite・services PMI
17:55 EUR Germany composite・services PMI
18:00 EUR Eurozone composite・services PMI
18:30 GBP Services PMI
19:00 EUR Retail sales
22:30 CAD Trade balance
23:45 USD Markit composite・services PMI
February 6 (Wednesday)
00:00 USD ISM non-manufacturing PMI
03:00 USD 3-year note auction
10:30 AUD RBA Governor speech
22:30 USD Trade balance・Retail sales
22:35 CAD Lane (BOC) Governor speech
TBD USD GDP・PCE deflator・Durable goods orders
February 7 (Thursday)
00:00 CAD Ivey PMI
00:30 USD Crude oil inventories
03:00 USD 10-year note auction
04:00 USD Monthly budget statement
06:45 NZD Employment change・Unemployment rate
08:05 USD Quarles (Fed Vice Chair) remarks
09:00 USD Powell (Fed Chair) remarks
09:30 AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
17:30 GBP Halifax house price index
18:00 EUR ECB Economic bulletin
21:00 GBP Policy rate・Statement・MPC vote allocation・Inflation report
22:00 CZK Czech policy rate
23:00 MXN Mexico CPI
February 8 (Friday)
03:00 USD 30-year bond auction
04:00 MXN Mexico policy rate
09:30 AUD RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement
16:00 NOK Norway GDP
22:30 CAD Employment change・Unemployment rate
February 9 (Saturday)
03:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count
